Home / Brokerage / AKD Quotidian about —: NML: 1QFY12 Result Preview

AKD Quotidian about —: NML: 1QFY12 Result Preview

Karachi: NML is scheduled to announce its 1QFY12 result later today.

According to AKD Securities, they expect NML to post NPAT of PkR1,206mn in 1QFY12 (EPS: PkR3.43), which would represent a decline of 11% YoY. Sequentially, AKD forecast earnings to fall by 12%QoQ following a 17%QoQ fall in operating profits due to lower gross margins (cotton price down 34%QoQ) and sales. Higher other income (+126%VoV) will be the likely saviour for NML in 1QFY12 where higher dividend income from power associate `Pakgen’ would moderate the impact of lower profitability from core operations. At current levels AKD Securities recommends Buy on NML with a target price of PkR73/share.


NML: 1QFY12 Result Preview
(PkR mn)  1QFY12E 1QFY11A  YoY
Net sales  12,331  9,961  24%
Gross profit 1,835  2,138 -14%
S and A exp.  841  584 39%
Financial charges  373  315 19%
Other income 806 357 24%
NPAT 1,206 1,350 126%
EPS (PkR) 3.43  3.84  -11%
Source: Company Reports and AKD Research



LOTPTA: 9MCY11 Result Preview

LOTPTA will be considering its 9MCY11 results later today. AKD Securities expects LOTPTA to post NPAT of PkR4,200mn (EPS: PkR2.77) which would represent a growth of 32%YoY over 9MCY10. For 3QCY11, AKD forecasts NPAT to fall steeply by 59%QoQ to PkR502mn (EPS: PkR0.33) where sequential fall in PTA-Px primary margins are expected to drag gross margins down by 6ppts QoQ to 6%.

NBP: 9MCY11 Result Preview

NBP is scheduled to post its 9MCY11 result tomorrow. On a consolidated basis, AKD expects NBP to post NPAT of PkR12.44bn (EPS: PkR7.40) in 9MCY11 against NPAT of PkR11.4lbn (EPS: PkR6.79) in 9MCY10, a growth of 9%YoY. 3QCY11 NPAT should register at PkR4.31bn (EPS: PkR2.56), up 22%YoY/12%QoQ. Key highlights of 9MCY11 results are expected to be 1) 9%YoY Nil growth, 2) 38%YoY increase in total provisions, 3) broad-based 29%VoY growth in non- interest income and 4) 12%YoY increase in admin expenses. Having shed 29%CYTD, NBP trades at a CY12F PIB of O.48x, PER of 4.2x and forward dividend yield of 15%. While asset quality risks remain, anticipated conversion of circular debt exposure into PUBs remains a potential trigger for both improvement in asset quality profile and recognition of suspended mark up. This could allow NBP to post a strong end to the year. At current share price, AKD’s target price of PkR54/share offers upside of 23% and implies a Buy stance.

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