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Morning Call about NBP and OGDC for the period ended September 2011 – Arif Habib Limited

Karachi: NBP; 9MCY11 net earnings are expected to rise by 4.9% YoY

According to Arif Habib Limited, National Bank of Pakistan (NBP) is scheduled to announce its 9MCY11 results on October 27, 2011. Arif Habib expects the bank to post PAT of PKR 3,829mn (EPS: PKR 2.28) in 3QCY11, a mere decline of 1.1% QoQ. On 9-month basis the net earnings are estimated to stand at PKR 11,920mn (EPS: PKR 7.09) compared to PKR 11,367mn (EPS: PKR 6.76) in the corresponding period last year, a growth of 4.9% YoY. The bank’s Net interest income (NII) is expected to augment by 9.2% YoY mainly due to 81bps YoY higher KIBOR and 10% YoY higher average earnings assets. NBP’s noninterest income is anticipated to witness a rise of 19.4% YoY to PKR 13,599mn as the bank realized during 2QCY11 interest on delayed tax refund to the tune of PKR 947mn and 21.6% jump in income from dealing in foreign currencies. Total provisioning during 9MCY11 is expected to rise by 29.4% YoY as classified advances have increased by 56% YoY by June-11.

 

Financial Highlights 3QCY11 2QCY11 YoY 9MCY11 9MCY10  YoY
Interest income 24,121 23,764 1.5%  71,055  65,579 8.4%
Interest expense 12,219 12,025 1.6% 36,469 33,917 7.5%
Net Interest Income 11,902 11,740 1.4% 34,587 31,662 9.2%
Total Provisions  2,546 4,466 -43.0%  8,682  6,707 29.4%
Total Non Interest income 3,768 6,174 – 39.0% 13,599 11,388 19.4%
Operating Expenses 7,234  8,141 -11.1%  21,955 19,709 11.4%
Profit before tax  5,890  5,306 11.0%  17,549 16,634 5.5%
Net income  3,829 3,871 -1.1% 11,920 11,367 4.9%
EPS 2.28 2.30  7.09 6.76
Source: Company Accounts and AHL Research

 

OGDC; Profitability to jump by 19% YoY in 1QFY12

The Board of Directors of Oil and Gas Development Company Limited (OGDC) is scheduled to meet on October 27, 2011 to announce the 1QFY12 results. According to Arif Habib’s estimations, the company is expected to post an earning of PKR 19,922mn (EPS: PKR4.63) in 1QFY12 compared to PKR 16,710mn (EPS: PKR3.89) in 1QFY11, a growth of 19% YoY. This rise in earnings is attributable to increase in net revenues of 17% YoY to PKR 46,322mn coupled with a staggering jump of 148% YoY in other income. The surge in net sales is expected on the back of rise in oil prices and hike in asset monetization. During the period oil and gas production is estimated to register a growth of 8% and 18% YoY to 39,000 bopd and 1,121 mmcfd. Along with the results the company is likely to announce a cash dividend of PKR 1.5/share

 

P and L highlights (PKR mn) 1QFY11E 1QFY110A  YoY
Sales  46,322 39,452 17%
Royalty 5,420 4,523 20%
Operating expenses  7,875 6,355 24%
Other income 1,507 607 148%
Exploration cost  1,655  2,532 -35%
General and Administration expenses 1,165 508 129%
Profit before taxation  29,296 24,137 21%
Taxation  9,375  7,428 26%
Profit after tax 19,922 16,710 19%
Earnings per share (PKR) 4.63  3.89  19%
Source: AHL estimates and Company accounts

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