Home / Brokerage / AKD Quotidian about —: UBL: 9MCY11 Result Preview

AKD Quotidian about —: UBL: 9MCY11 Result Preview

Karachi: United Bank Ltd (UBL) is scheduled to announce its 9MCY11 result later today.

According to AKD Securities, on a consolidated basis, they expects UBL to post NPAT of PKR9.61bn (fully-diluted EPS: PKR7.85) in 9MCY11 against NPAT of PKR7.91bn (fully-diluted EPS: PKR6.46) in 9MCY10, translating into 22%YoY growth. This should arise on the back of strong 17%YoY Nll growth. On a sequential basis, AKD Securities expects UBL to post NPAT of PKR3.20bn (fully-diluted EPS: PKR2.62) in 3QCY11, up 6%QoQ, as effective tax rate normalizes post the flood surcharge. UBL trades at a CY12F P/B of O.73x and PER of 4.94x where AKD’s target price of PKR69/share offers upside of 24%.

PSMC: 9MCY11 Result Preview
Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMC) is scheduled to consider its 9MCY11 financial results tomorrow. AKD Securities expects the company to report NPAT of PKR529mn in the review period against NPAT of PKR390mn in the same period last year, a growth of 36%YoY. The result translates into an EPS of PKR6.42 in 9MCY11 against EPS of PKR4.73 in 9MCY10. Growth is expected to stem mainly from higher volumes (up 17%YoY). As autos prices remained on the higher side in 9MCY11, gross margin is expected to increase by 78bpsYoY to stand at 3.91%. Consequently, operating margin should also increase to 1.73% in the review period, from 1.12% in 9MCY10. On a sequential basis, PSMC is expected to report earnings growth of 21%QoQ to post NPAT of PKR227.4mn (EPS: PKR2.76) in 3QCY11.
ULEVER: 9MCY11 Result Preview
Unilever Pakistan Limited (ULEVER) is scheduled to announce its 9MCY11 financial results today. AKD Securities expects the company to report flat NPAT of PKR2,129mn in the review period against NPAT of PKR2,135mn in the same period last year. The result translates into an EPS of PKR160.20 in 9MCY11 against EPS of PKR160.65 in 9MCY10. While core business remained profitable, lower cash balance in 1QFY12 should lead to a contained NPAT. AKD Securities has a Reduce stance on ULEVER, which trades at FY12F PER of 15.7x and at premium of 12% to AKD’s target price of PKR5,212 per share.

MTL: 1QFY12 Result Preview
Millat Tractors Limited (MTL) is scheduled to announce its 1QFY12 financial results today. AKD Securities expects the company to report NPAT of PKR224mn in the review period against NPAT of PKR56Omn in the same period last year, a decline of 60%YoY. The result translates into an EPS of PKR6.12 in 1QFY12 against EPS of PKR15.29 in 1QFY11.
Decline is expected to come from the volumes plunge (down 77%YoY), on the back of GST imposition and depressed farmer economics (higher input prices, lower cotton prices). Despite higher tractor prices, gross margin should remain contained to 19.3% in 1QFY12, due to higher steel cost. Consequently, the operating margin should also stand constant at 16.9%. Going forward, as farm economics may remain depressed, with no notification on GoP decision to revoke the GST decision and soaring urea prices, AKD Securities advises investors to remain sidelined from tractor scrips in the near term. it is in the process of reviewing AKD’s investment case for MTL and shall update post release of detailed financial accounts.

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