Home / Brokerage / AKD Quotidian about — POL: 1QFY12 Result Preview

AKD Quotidian about — POL: 1QFY12 Result Preview

Karachi: Pakistan Oilfields is scheduled to finalize 1QFY12 results later today where AKS Securities expects the company to post NPAT of PkR2.92bn against NPAT of PkR2.23bn in 1QFY11.

According to AKD Securities, the result translates into an EPS of PkR12.33/share, up 31%YoY (1QFY11 EPS of PkR9.44/share). AKS Securities expects top-line growth to lead earnings where revenues are expected to increase by 33%YoY to PkR7.15bn underscored by higher asset monetization (oil and gas volume growth likely to clock in at 15%YoY and 6%YoY, respectively) and expanding development returns – crude oil blends are up 46%YoY.

AKD Securities’ earnings forecast includes potential exploration write-off at Chak Naurang South leading exploration costs to increase by 5x. Adjusting for the write-off, earnings could have clocked in at PkR13.89/share with the well currently shut in and operator OGDC targeting a work-over. Sequentially, AKS Securities expects earnings to be 2%QoQ lower mainly due to well write-off. Stock price has underperformed the broader market by 5% over the last one month. AKS Securities believes POL will likely show improving price performance going forward backed by an expanding production profile into 2HFY12. AKS Securities retains AKD Securities’ upside bias on POL and recommend an Accumulate stance with a target price of PkR432/share.

EFOODS: 9MCY11 Result Preview

EFOODS will announce its 9MCY11 result on Oct 2091. AKS Securities expects the company to post consolidated NPAT of PkR342mn (EPS: PkR0.46) which would represent a growth of 15x YoY. AKS Securities does not expect any dividend payout with the result. Top-line is estimated to grow by an impressive 38%YoY to PkR21.6bn while AKS Securities expects the company’s operating profit to stand at PkR1.4bn.  For 3QCY11, AKS Securities expects sequential earnings improvement with NPAT forecast to grow by 27%QoQ to PkR126mn (EPS: PkR0.17).

EFOODS’ net revenues are forecast to grow by 10%QoQ to PkR7.9bn with revenues getting a further boost due to Ramzan. Gross margins are expected to remain flat sequentially at 21% while operating profits are forecast to grow by 7%QoQ to PkR504mn. Recent cut in discount rate bodes well for EFOODS where a 1% reduction in interest rates results in an earnings improvement of 5% for EFOODS over the CY12F-16F period. At current levels, AKS Securities recommends Buy on EFOODS which presents a 16% upside to AKD Securities’ target price of PkR28.5/share.

 

(NkRmn) 9MCA11 3QCY11E QoQ
Net sales   21,595  7,243 10%
Gross profit 4,593 1,671  10%
Operating profit   1,361 504 7%
Financial Charges  833  311 -2%
PBT 529 194 26%
PAT 342 126 27%
Less: Mm. interest 13 13  n.m
PAT attributable to Holding company 352 113 14%
EPS (PKR @748mn sh.)   0.46 0.17
Source: OGRA and AKD Research

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